ARTICLE BY SYED JAMALUDDIN
It has been proved that today Mohajir nation is alone and in confrontation with rest of Pakistan. The Punjabis have forgotten their own internal differences as Nawaz Sharif visited Imran Khan and shook hands with him to convey a message that ALL PUNJABIS ARE ONE AGAINST MOHAJIR NATION AND MQM. Similarly, Ch. Shujaat Hussain also visited Imran Khan (Chief of PAKISTAN JUSTICE PARTY) reflecting the same feeling. The Punjabi Army Chief Ashfaq Kiyani has also visited the residence of Nawaz Sharif at latter´s RAIWIND palace thereby giving an OPEN MESSAGE to all that PUNJABIS ARE ONE. Punjab is now busy in building a grand political alliance against Mohajir nation in order to ensure that Urdu speaking nation (commonly known as MOHAJIR) are sidelined and eliminated ONCE AND FOR ALL in terms of their political identity and "CONTROLLED THROUGH AN ENGINEERED POLITICAL SETUP BEING NOURISHED IN THE PUNJAB´s LABORATORY OF CONSPIRACIES BASED AT RAIWIND PALACE". This attempt on the part of Punjabi political as well as military establishment is very much evident and visible from what is happening in Karachi these days. Although I had cautioned Altaf Hussain not to waste time in socalled POLITICS AT NATIONAL LEVEL or making MQM a party of mainstream Pakistani politics but to rather concentrate on Karachi, Hyderabad and other urban centres in Sindh province. The concept behind this suggestion was based on my reliable belief that nobody would ever recognize MQM as a political party but a representative body of MOHAJIR NATION in the other parts of Pakistan and so it happened exactly what I had foreseen. To my utmost disappointment, Altaf Hussain and his team ignored my suggestions by going ahead with Pakistan People's Party in political alliance and tried to make MQM a political hostage at national level. This was a great blunder on the part of Altaf Hussain and his advisor Dr. Ishrat ul Ibad. PPP had been stabbling the back of MQM on many occasions through their different politicians such as Dr. Zulfiqar Mirza and Faisal Raza Abidi. Even, while I am writing these lines, Mr. Zardari has given specific instructions to Faisal Raza Abidi to prepare a comprehensive media presentation against MQM which he is going to make soonest on all Pakistani TV channels in order to what they call "EXPOSING THE REALITY OF MQM". PPP now wants to corner the MOHAJIR NATION through a media campaign in the name of freedom of speech through various TV TALK SHOWS with the sole objective to discredit and tarnish image of Altaf Hussain and MQM. The aim for this campaign is very much clear and glaring i.e. ZARDARI WANTS TO REMAIN IN GOOD BOOKS OF NAWAZ SHARIF TO AVOID ANY PROBLEM WITH HIM at the cost of defaming, accusing, targeting, ridiculing, tarnishing and condemning MQM and its leadership through none other than the same old characters like Faisal Raza Abidi and Dr. Zulfiqar Mirza. The statements of Faisal Raza Abidi and Dr. Zulfiqar Mirza will be contemplated as their "PERSONAL OPINION" while Pakistan´s national TV channel called PTV-PAKISTAN TELEVISION will obviously telecast all non-sense against MQM and Altaf Hussain in line with a well-prepared MEDIA CAMPAIGN with the approval of Asif Ali Zardari. PAKISTAN JUSTICE PARTY under the leadership of Imran Khan has already launched a media campaign against Altaf Hussain and MQM by accusing them of murder of Zahra Hussain (a member of PTI in Karachi). In this regards, Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan are on the same page to eliminate Altaf Hussain´s political strength in Karachi. The British government is being approached in a totally different manner this time around on the basis of Nawaz Sharif´s £500 Million investment in UK. Indeed UK government would indeed extend all favours to Nawaz Sharif as UK would not want any problem with Nawaz Sharif either. Pakistan Army has already given GREEN SIGNAL to Nawaz Sharif that MQM would be dealt with more aggressively and yet another 1992-type OPERATION CLEANUP must be on the cards. Sindhi nationalist political parties have already begun their movement to get rid of MQM and Altaf Hussain under the auspices of PML (Functional) and others including Palejo group. The Local Bodies related laws will be challenged in Punjabi Supreme Court and the Chief Justice Mr. Chaudhry who is ALWAYS AT SERVICE OF NAWAZ SHARIF will be delighted to issue orders against MQM thereby paving way to discredit MQM and all legislations passed during PPP-MQM political alliance during last one year in the province of Sindh. PPP will remain quiet as usual. The new government in Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa has also started making arrangements to prepare false criminal cases against MQM on charges of weapons smuggling to be based on false statements potentially obtained from "ALREADY HELD PASHTOON ACTIVISTS" belonging to Taliban. These Pashttoons will testify in front of media against MQM and tell the nation that MQM was responsible for purchasing weapons of mass destruction and missiles from certain Taliban groups in order to create havoc in Karachi. Henceforth, Awami National Party of Asfandyar Wali Khan has been asked to SHUT THEIR MOUTH in exchange of "NOT INITIATING ANY INVESTIGATION AGAINST ANP GOVERNMENT IN DIFFERENT CORRUPTION SCANDALS" during their previous tenure. Indeed, ANP has its own wounds and grievances against MQM for very obvious reasons known to everybody. MQM and ANP have been confronting eachother in Karachi for many years which has been termed as "POWER STRUGGLE" to control Karachi. So far, MQM has been victorious but apparently this victory is being snatched through a massive evil plan which can be termed as "MOHAJIR NATION VS REST OF PAKISTAN". All anti-Mohajir forces (political and military) have now come together and joined hands with a SINGLE AGENDA i.e. to eliminate MQM and Mohajir Nation from any potential progress or expansion and to isolate them. The recent NA-250 Karachi constituency election is a SHEER REFLECTION of the manipulation by Punjabi-dominant ELECTION COMMISSION of Punjabistan which played its due role in exposing the very intention that there is indeed a massive strategy to confront MQM on all fronts with certain ulterior motive i.e. to eliminate MQM on one hand and minimize the true representation of MOHAJIR NATION in Sindh province. The puppets like ARIF ALVI who are more like SARAH PALIN`s TEA PARTY CAMPAIGNERS, have been given a huge task to ensure that MQM voters in the said constituency are misguided and MQM´s vote bank is crushed into pieces. This has worked well and enemies of MOHAJIR NATION and MQM are now celebrating their victory in Karachi. I request and appeal to Altaf Hussain to return to the main objective i.e. CREATION OF AN INDEPENDENT STATE for Mohajir nation called REPUBLIC OF JINNAHPUR before its too late. All people in Karachi and Hyderabad must read my book "FORMATION OF REPUBLIC OF JINNAHPUR" and understand my message. I have proposed in the said book that JINNAHPUR LIBERATION MOVEMENT must be launched. Hence, time has come for this movement to be launched without fail. We cannot afford any further delays. MOHAJIR NATION is now looking at Altaf Hussain with a great hope. Dont allow time to be slipped off our hands. We must go for independence and make REPUBLIC OF JINNAHPUR.
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
Monday, May 13, 2013
SYED JAMALUDDIN WELCOMES PUBLIC ADDRESS OF ALTAF HUSSAIN AND DEMANDS MAKING OF REPUBLIC OF JINNAHPUR
Syed Jamaluddin has welcomed public address of Altaf Hussain (Sunday 12th May 2013) in which Altaf Hussain had condemned the role of Pakistan's military establishment and certain media houses apart from certain political parties which do not like popularity of MQM in the urban areas of Sindh. Syed Jamaluddin stated that he (Syed Jamaluddin) has been advocating disintegration of Pakistan since 2001 and has been requesting Altaf Hussain ever since not to trust the military establishment as well as leaders of those political parties which were born under the umbrella of such military establishment belonging to Punjab including Sindhi political leadership and Pakhtoon settlers in Karachi. Syed Jamaluddin said that time has come for the liberation of Urdu speaking nation and making of an independent state called REPUBLIC OF JINNAHPUR. It is now time for MQM to realize the need for such an independent state for Urdu speaking nation and there should not be any further delay in this endeavour to be implemented with all zeal and enthusiasm. Syed Jamaluddin hoped that millions of Urdu speaking people will certainly stand on any call from Altaf Hussain for a separate state. There is no alternative but to ensure the freedom of Urdu speaking nation from the prison called Pakistan which is governed by Punjab's military dictatorship behind the curtain through Punjabi and Sindhi political bandits. Syed Jamaluddin urged Altaf Hussain to declare FREEDOM STRUGGLE with immediate effect and issue orders to all Urdu speaking youth to be prepared for a CIVIL WAR in urban centres of Sindh province in order to gain victory over the Punjabi-sponsored Sindhi nationalist political parties as well as certain local elements which are being nourished by INTER-SERVICES INTELLIGENCE (ISI) through a new puppet political party called PAKISTAN JUSTICE PARTY (PTI) under the socalled leadership of a PLAYBOY called IMRAN KHAN. Syed Jamaluddin recalled that Altaf Hussain had made a biggest mistake by attempting to enter into broader political spectrum of Pakistan without realizing that none of the other provinces would recognize or accept URDU SPEAKING NATION as patriotic Pakistanis. The evidence of such an attitude is visible from the mindset of such political forces belonging to Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa and Balochistan. Syed Jamaluddin requested Altaf Hussain NOT TO WASTE A SINGLE MINUTE in deciding for an independent country for Urdu speaking nation and urged that all Urdu speaking youth must come out of their homes and demonstrate their willingness for an independent state called REPUBLIC OF JINNAHPUR. The flags of REPUBLIC OF JINNAHPUR must be spread all over Karachi and other cities of Sindh province. Syed Jamaluddin hoped that Punjab´s military establishment would not confront the ever-rising energy of Urdu speaking nation and would never think or attempt to resist the FREEDOME MOVEMENT of Urdu speaking nation. Syed Jamaluddin cautioned Punjab´s military establishment that in the event of any potential OPERATION CLEAN-UP type of terrorism as committed by Pak Army back in 1992, Urdu speaking nation would abandon Punjab Army and cut them into pieces. Syed Jamaluddin asked the current CHIEF OF ARMY STAFF General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani to withdraw all military and para-military forces including Rangers from Karachi and Hyderabad as soon as possible thereby paving way for the Urdu speaking nation to declare their independence. Syed Jamaluddin hoped that NATO FORCES would come to secure people of Karachi and other urban centres of Sindh in the event of any potential terrorism by Pakistani Army. Syed Jamaluddin has also requested INTERNATIONAL COMITY OF NATIONS and member countries of NATO to immediately intervene and ensure that any attempt to commit genocide of Urdu speaking nation under the dictatorship of Punjab´s military establishment is foiled. The UN Secretary General must send a FACT FINDING DELEGATION to Karachi in order to determine the need for a PLEBISCITE in the urban centres of Sindh province to find out if Urdu speaking nation wants to live under the umbrella of a terrorist / failed state called Pakistan or wants INDEPENDENCE.
Thursday, April 11, 2013
SYED JAMALUDDIN SUCCEEDS IN REALITY: House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, Baluchistan Hearing , Ralph Peters
Balochistan News Network (BNN): Videos:: House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, Baluchistan Hearing , Ralph Peters
Thursday, February 07, 2013
INDIA MUST ACT FAST TO HELP URDU-SPEAKING NATION LIVING IN PAKISTAN IN MAKING OF "REPUBLIC OF JINNAHPUR"
Syed Jamaluddin has urged INDIA to act faster than before in helping URDU-SPEAKING NATION living in Karachi and other urban areas of Sindh province of Pakistan in making of an independent state called "REPUBLIC OF JINNAHPUR" which has now become more INEVITABLE for the reason that Pakistan´s military establishment controlled by PUNJAB is making plans to counter all plans paving way for the formation of REPUBLIC OF JINNAHPUR and abandoning the representative voice of Urdu-speaking nation i.e. MOHAJIR (temporarily MUTAHIDA) QAUMI MOVEMENT headed by ALTAF HUSSAIN. Syed Jamaluddin has cautioned that the PUNJAB´s military establishment wants to corner the Urdu-speaking nation and eliminate MQM from the streets of Karachi through a GUERILLA WAR being imposed on Karachiites through TALIBANIZED factions of Pathan and Punjabi policital parties which are operating under the superivision of INTELLIGENCE BUREAU and INTER-SERVICES INTELLIGENCE. Syed Jamaluddin has appealed to ALTAF HUSSAIN not to ignore the very fact that he (Altaf Hussain) has never been acknowledged as a true Pakistani either by Punjab province or Punjab´s Army. In ISI´s records, ALTAF HUSSAIN IS TREATED AS YET ANOTHER SHAIKH MUJEEBUR REHMAN of Bangladesh. Henceforth, it would be advisable if ALTAF HUSSAIN is able to understand exactly WHATS GOING ON AROUND MOHAJIR NATION in the province of Sindh. Syed Jamaluddin also pointed out that since the day GWADAR PORT construction started, there was provision of PROPER SECURITY and no terrorist attack was recorded at the construction site of GWADAR PORT because heavy contingent of Punjab´s army was deployed to restore security of all Chinese engineers and other workers in that area. Despite the fact that hundreds of Mohajirs were deprived of proper security in Karachi and other urban areas in Sindh province, Gwadar port area remained under strict vigilance by Punjab Army which made it possible that the said GWADAR port be constructed in order to not only prevent making of REPUBLIC OF JINNAHPUR on one hand but to abandon any "potential armed movement" by MOHAJIR NATION for their independence in 2014 or 2015. The Pakistani intelligence reports have confirmed that Balochistan would be liberated in 2015 under the leadership of JOHN KERRY (the new American Secretary of State)and so making of REPUBLIC OF JINNAHPUR may also become possible as a consequence of possible disintegration of Spain in 2015 where Catalonia is looking forward for independence. Karachi is PAKISTAN´S CATALONIA and KOSOVO and therefore in order to combat this possibility, Punjab Army is making innovative plans to control Karachi through aerial attacks including use of CHINESE DRONES which will fly from GWADAR PORT where a specific airbase has been constructed for this purpose. There are more than 100 targets already registered by PAKISTAN´s INTER-SERVICES INTELLIGENCE for such drone attacks. MQM´s Karachi headquarter known as "90" is also one of these potential TARGETS. Syed Jamaluddin has drawn the attention of MQM towards the importance of self-reliance and therefore asked ALTAF HUSSAIN to ensure that Karachi remains under the control of MOHAJIR NATION despite all efforts being made by State of Pakistan to create hurdles and hindrances for MQM to win people´s vote. Syed Jamaluddin has asked ALTAF HUSSAIN to immediately announce liberation movement to make an indepedent state called REPUBLIC OF JINNAHPUR as also advocated by Syed Jamaluddin in his book titled "FORMATION OF REPUBLIC OF JINNAHPUR". The people of Karachi and other urban areas of Sindh must prepare themselves for the PUNJABI CRUSADE against Mohajirs. The Operation Cleanup of 1992 will look like a CHILD´S PLAY because a MASSIVE GENOCIDE has alreday been planned by PUNJAB ARMY to crush MOHAJIRS and convert them into URDU-SPEAKING ASIAN PALESTINIANS. ALTAF HUSSAIN MUST ANNOUNCE "EMERGENCY WITHIN MQM" and issue orders to all MQM workers to prepare an EFFECTIVE ACTION PLAN to combat all possible attacks. ALTAF HUSSAIN must also inform all world leaders about potential attacks on people of Karachi in the name of ELIMINATION OF TERRORISM by Pakistan´s Punjabi Army. Syed Jamaluddin has asked INDIAN GOVERNMENT to intervene urgently and ensure that REPUBLIC OF JINNAHPUR is made within next 24 months. Syed Jamaluddin has cautioned that if MQM shows reluctance in this matter, it would be too late as Karachi will become yet another NORTH WAZIRISTAN of Sindh province. PUNJAB WANTS TO KEEP ITS OWN ECONOMY RUNNING AND ALIVE THROUGH GWADAR PORT because PUNJAB knows that making of REPUBLIC OF JINNAHPUR is INEVITABLE. Syed Jamaluddin has requested all URDU-SPEAKING YOUTH not to waste time in music or social enjoyment but to prepare for a massive sacrifice. Time to enjoy life is OVER for urdu-speaking nation. Now is the time to look for SURVIVAL.
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Sunday, December 23, 2012
SYED JAMALUDDIN APPEALS TO BCB TO CALL OFF PAK TOUR
http://vocaroo.com/i/s0u3IAV0IILy
Bangladesh Cricket Board
Bangladesh Cricket Board
Sher-e-Bangla National Cricket Stadium
Mirpur-2, Dhaka-1216
Tel:880-2-8031001, 8031002, 8031003, 8031004
Fax: 880-2-8031199
E-Mail: office@bcb-cricket.com
Dear Gentlemen
I hope that you would listen to my appeal and humble request with seriousness. I request you to understand that Pakistan is a failed state and perhaps the most notorious place on earth at the moment. Regardless of the fact that Pakistanis may be great lovers of game of cricket, yet, Pakistan as a state is not worth to be given any importance for so many reasons.
I earnestly request you to kindly CALL OFF BANGLADESH CRICKET TEAM TOUR OF PAKISTAN. This is in the interest of Bangladesh´s cricket future in general and to save the new sporting skills of all players of Bangladesh cricket team in particular. We cannot afford to allow Bangladesh cricket players to risk their lives in Pakistan which is nursery of terrorism. Even senior politicians are not safe in Pakistan. Sri Lankan cricket team was attacked in broad day light in Lahore-Pakistan. Pakistan´s internal security situation is questionable and it would not be prudent on the part of Bangladesh Cricket Board to demonstrate any carelessness simply on the basis of false assurances by Pakistani authorities in the matter of providing security to Bangladesh cricket players and officials. We must decide by analysing ground realities and not emotions.
I pray to ALLAH ALMIGHTY to guide the members of Bangladesh Cricket Board in this matter. Time is running out and it is essential that tour of Pakistan be CALLED OFF as immediately as possible.
Best regards.
JAMALUDDIN SYED
GERMANY
TEL +49-17632440017
Saturday, August 18, 2012
Pakistan may be disintegrated in 2014
Syed Jamaluddin, writer of "DIVIDE PAKISTAN TO ELIMINATE TERRORISM" has predicted that in view of the fact that USA intends to leave Afghanistan during 2013, this may further postpone division / disintegration of Pakistan and Pakistan may now face its disintegration in 2014 summer. According to Syed Jamaluddin, Pakistan Army is also aware of Pakistan´s disintegration and has finally agreed to give up Balochistan as the said province may cause more problems for other parts of Pakistan which may also start freedom movements similar to Balochistan Liberation Army. Pakistan´s notorious intelligence agency called INTER-SERVICES INTELLIGENCE (ISI) has started work on mechanism which will be followed in allowing independence to Balochistan under auspices of a UN-led delegation which will arrive in Pakistan in early 2014. This high-powered delegation will interact with all senior Baloch leaders and Pakistan´s main military leadership in line with the recent understanding entered into between ISI and American government. In exchange of Balochistan´s independence, Pakistan´s military establishment will receive American assurance that India would never attack Pakistan and Pakistan would never by pressurized to sign NPT or CTBT (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty). Under the said arrangement, Pakistan will be entitled to revenues earned from mines exploration which are currently in the Baloch areas for next 25 years.
Syed Jamaluddin has also informed that Pakistan´s military establishment has also agreed with Americans that Pakistan´s ISI shall suspend its functions inside Indian Kashmir. During Musharraf´s tenure, such undertaking was also given by the then ISI to USA and due to this undertaking, Pakistan´s main media had also suspended any propaganda about Pakistan´s claim on Kashmir. Similarly, it was during Musharraf´s tenure that Pakistan´ foreign office had stopped special briefings on Kashmir which was a routine affair previously.
Syed Jamaluddin has expressed his deep concern on Altaf Hussain´s silence on the issue of an independent state for urdu speaking nation although it is very important that urdu speaking nation must survive after making of an independent Balochistan. It is essential that urdu speaking nation must also demand independence and separation from Pakistan otherwise they will continue to live under military siege forever and rights of urdu speaking nation will be violated openly by Punjabi military establishment as well as local Sindhi nationalists.
Syed Jamaluddin has hoped that urdu speaking youth will soon get up and raise the solgan of an independent state called REPUBLIC OF JINNAHPUR.
Syed Jamaluddin has also informed that Pakistan´s military establishment has also agreed with Americans that Pakistan´s ISI shall suspend its functions inside Indian Kashmir. During Musharraf´s tenure, such undertaking was also given by the then ISI to USA and due to this undertaking, Pakistan´s main media had also suspended any propaganda about Pakistan´s claim on Kashmir. Similarly, it was during Musharraf´s tenure that Pakistan´ foreign office had stopped special briefings on Kashmir which was a routine affair previously.
Syed Jamaluddin has expressed his deep concern on Altaf Hussain´s silence on the issue of an independent state for urdu speaking nation although it is very important that urdu speaking nation must survive after making of an independent Balochistan. It is essential that urdu speaking nation must also demand independence and separation from Pakistan otherwise they will continue to live under military siege forever and rights of urdu speaking nation will be violated openly by Punjabi military establishment as well as local Sindhi nationalists.
Syed Jamaluddin has hoped that urdu speaking youth will soon get up and raise the solgan of an independent state called REPUBLIC OF JINNAHPUR.
Saturday, June 30, 2012
PAKISTAN IS HEADING TOWARDS HISTORIC ECONOMIC CRISIS
source: DAWN NEWS PAKISTAN
The budget deficit stood at 6.6 per cent of GDP last year, according to the central bank, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), which warned that government borrowing was crowding out the private sector from access to credit. That reduces the prospects for economic growth in a country that is on the front line of the war against al Qaeda and where more than 5,000 people have been killed in bomb and gun attacks by insurgents since 2007. External forecasts for the current fiscal year see the budget deficit rising to about seven per cent of GDP, while economists warn the government is running out of ways to fund it — and reluctant to embrace reform with polls looming. Some see little alternative to a major financial crisis or a return to the IMF, which bailed out Pakistan with an $11.3 billion loan package in 2008 that stopped last November after Islamabad rejected strict reform demands.
“I think it’s possible they could have a real financial crisis by the middle of this year or the fall. I don’t think it’s a question of if, but when they go back to the IMF,” one Western diplomat said.
Pakistan’s tax revenues are among the lowest in the world at just 9.8 per cent of GDP in fiscal 2010-2011, says the Asian Development Bank, and less than two per cent of the population pays tax on their income. On top of this, the government shells out huge sums on electricity subsidies — about 1.5 per cent of GDP in 2010-11, according to the IMF — for a sector so blighted by mismanagement that most of the country suffers crippling power cuts. Pakistan has also missed out on payments from the United States for its efforts to fight militancy under the Coalition Support Fund (CSF).
This brought around $8.8 billion into Pakistan’s coffers between 2002 and 2011, including $1.5 billion in 2009-10, but Islamabad stopped claiming the money as ties with Washington collapsed in the wake of the raid that killed Osama bin Laden last year. “There’s not really any money coming in, and that being the case, the government is financing itself by borrowing from the local banks and the local banks aren’t seeing deposits coming in to keep up,” said Liz Martins, an economist with HSBC.
The pressure on finance houses “means they have very limited money to lend to the private sector,” she said. “There’s no money coming from the IMF, no money coming from the bond markets, and international investors are very cautious.” Islamabad borrowed 365 billion rupees ($4 billion) from the banking system — both private banks and the SBP — in the first half of the current financial year, the central bank said in its second quarter economic report. With inflation already running at around 11 per cent, the alternative of printing money to pay debts opens the way to the nightmare of hyperinflation. The IMF says Pakistan needs to raise tax revenues substantially to reduce the deficit sustainably, but with an election due within months analysts do not expect Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Shaikh to follow its advice in his budget on Friday. “I don’t think the government is able to bear the terms that come with going back to the IMF,” said Sartaj Aziz, former finance minister and vice chancellor of Beaconhouse National University. The situation was already serious, he warned. “The total expansion of currency is higher than ever, so it is already reaching dangerous levels. It has to be arrested by drastic remedial measures,” he said. Officials from the finance ministry were repeatedly contacted by AFP, but declined to comment on how they planned to finance the deficit.
In Pakistan, once a general election is called, an interim government takes power for three months while campaigning is under way and Aziz said he thought this would give the government a way to duck difficult budget decisions. “I think the government will be happy to wait until the election is called and hand the problem over to the caretaker government,” he said.
The budget deficit stood at 6.6 per cent of GDP last year, according to the central bank, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), which warned that government borrowing was crowding out the private sector from access to credit. That reduces the prospects for economic growth in a country that is on the front line of the war against al Qaeda and where more than 5,000 people have been killed in bomb and gun attacks by insurgents since 2007. External forecasts for the current fiscal year see the budget deficit rising to about seven per cent of GDP, while economists warn the government is running out of ways to fund it — and reluctant to embrace reform with polls looming. Some see little alternative to a major financial crisis or a return to the IMF, which bailed out Pakistan with an $11.3 billion loan package in 2008 that stopped last November after Islamabad rejected strict reform demands.
“I think it’s possible they could have a real financial crisis by the middle of this year or the fall. I don’t think it’s a question of if, but when they go back to the IMF,” one Western diplomat said.
Pakistan’s tax revenues are among the lowest in the world at just 9.8 per cent of GDP in fiscal 2010-2011, says the Asian Development Bank, and less than two per cent of the population pays tax on their income. On top of this, the government shells out huge sums on electricity subsidies — about 1.5 per cent of GDP in 2010-11, according to the IMF — for a sector so blighted by mismanagement that most of the country suffers crippling power cuts. Pakistan has also missed out on payments from the United States for its efforts to fight militancy under the Coalition Support Fund (CSF).
This brought around $8.8 billion into Pakistan’s coffers between 2002 and 2011, including $1.5 billion in 2009-10, but Islamabad stopped claiming the money as ties with Washington collapsed in the wake of the raid that killed Osama bin Laden last year. “There’s not really any money coming in, and that being the case, the government is financing itself by borrowing from the local banks and the local banks aren’t seeing deposits coming in to keep up,” said Liz Martins, an economist with HSBC.
The pressure on finance houses “means they have very limited money to lend to the private sector,” she said. “There’s no money coming from the IMF, no money coming from the bond markets, and international investors are very cautious.” Islamabad borrowed 365 billion rupees ($4 billion) from the banking system — both private banks and the SBP — in the first half of the current financial year, the central bank said in its second quarter economic report. With inflation already running at around 11 per cent, the alternative of printing money to pay debts opens the way to the nightmare of hyperinflation. The IMF says Pakistan needs to raise tax revenues substantially to reduce the deficit sustainably, but with an election due within months analysts do not expect Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Shaikh to follow its advice in his budget on Friday. “I don’t think the government is able to bear the terms that come with going back to the IMF,” said Sartaj Aziz, former finance minister and vice chancellor of Beaconhouse National University. The situation was already serious, he warned. “The total expansion of currency is higher than ever, so it is already reaching dangerous levels. It has to be arrested by drastic remedial measures,” he said. Officials from the finance ministry were repeatedly contacted by AFP, but declined to comment on how they planned to finance the deficit.
In Pakistan, once a general election is called, an interim government takes power for three months while campaigning is under way and Aziz said he thought this would give the government a way to duck difficult budget decisions. “I think the government will be happy to wait until the election is called and hand the problem over to the caretaker government,” he said.
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